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Título

Temporal trends analysis of the mortality rate due to Cerebral Infarction in Brazil between 2011-2021

Resumo

Introduction: Cerebral infarct results from ischemic necrosis caused by an interruption or reduction of the blood supply of the damaged area. According to the World Health Organization, 6 million people die annually from cerebrovascular diseases, corresponding to 11% of all deaths, becoming the second major cause of annual mortality. Objective: To analyse the MR due to Cerebral infarction among the Brazilian population. Methods: A retrospective, longitudinal, observational and analytic study. The number of brain infarction deaths (CID-10 163) where obtained from the Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) and the populational data from IBGE. That includes the number of deaths between 2011 and 2021, stratified by region. The mortality rate (MR) was calculated per 100.000 inhabitants. The MR trends of each region during the study time were determined by segmented linear regression (joinpoint regression), with the dependent variable the natural logarithmic transformation of the MR and the year for regression variable. The Annual Percent Changes (APCs) were obtained with a confidence interval of 95% (CI95%). Results: 31857 cases of stroke were notified in Brazil between 2011-2021, with 2019 and 10-21 being the years with the highest incidence. The average annual mortality presents 1,4 events for every 100000 people. The progression of MR in the Brazilian population revealed a rising tendency: APC=4,36%year (CI 95%= 3,4-5,3 P<0,05). The Southeast was the only one that presented a rising tendency during the whole period (APC 7,6%/year, CI 95% 5,2-10,1 p<0,05), although the progression of the deaths could only be identified between 2014 and 2021 (APC = 9,76%/year, CI 95% 7,8-11,8 p<0,001). The South region presented a significant progression until 2017 (APC 5,4% CI 95% 1,8-9,1 p=0,01), while analysing the whole period, the absolute evolution of deaths doesn't show a significant difference (p>0,05). Similar to what happened to the North region, with an increasing tendency only during 2011 and 1019 (APC 7,5%/year CI 95% 1,8-13,5 p=0,017). The trends were stationary for Center-West and Northeast during the whole period without significant difference. Conclusion: Two types of epidemiologic patterns in the MR for cerebral infarcts in Brazil are observed, a stationary and progressive evolution. In Center-West and Northeast regions follow the stationary pattern, while the South, Southeast and North regions follow the progressive and significant profiles.

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Área

Neuroepidemiologia